Hooper Prize – Third Place: Royal Navy Future Challenges

Third Place (Joint)

AB David Dulla, HMS TAMAR

It is more than 40 years since the Falklands conflict. Evaluate the challenges the Royal Navy face if it were to engage in a non-NATO supported conflict in the Southern Hemisphere

Context and Considerations

Argentina surrendered their claim on the British overseas territory 74 days after invading the Falkland Islands, an outcome determined by poor strategic planning coupled with an under estimation of the United Kingdom’s political appetite for a military response. Using this short war as the sole benchmark for predicting future challenges for the Royal Navy is unreliable over 40 years later, however this essay argues the same four considerations still determine the scale and success of any scenario in the future. Political, social, environmental and economic factors drive the capabilities of everyone from the Prime Minister down to a tradesman running a small painting and decorating business, with all organisations subject to conditions of which they have limited levels of control. Challenges vary depending on these factors, but conclusions will highlight financial investments, determined by social and political support, will create risks for the Royal Navy.

A turbulent world outlook and the NATO perspective

Politically the United Kingdom is largely divided in 2024 between the Conservative and the Labour parties. The UK have led support for Ukraine in their ongoing defence when the Russian Federation invaded in February 2022, fuelling a deterioration in East-West relations which is comparable to the Cold War 1947-1991. Meanwhile, Israel invaded Palestinian Gaza in October 2023 after responding to a Hamas attack on a music festival, following years of unrest over territorial claims traced back to political agreements made in the wake of World War II. In addition, Yemen has seen the Iranian backed Houthis carry out attacks on western merchant ships attempting to transit the Red Sea. And finally, the People’s Republic of China is attempting to assert dominance in the South China Sea, with the deployment of Royal Navy and NATO allies to safeguard free trade and fisheries. With these significant and potentially escalating conflicts dominating politics, focusing on the northern hemisphere is the key focus for UK governments. This prioritisation means deploying less operational capability south of the equator, arguably challenging the speed at which the Royal Navy’s main fighting force could respond in these areas.

Article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulates an attack on British overseas territory south of the Tropic of Cancer would not qualify for collective defence between NATO Nations, and as seen in the Iraq War 2003 it is easier to make a political argument for military conflict when you are supported by other countries because resources and risks are shared. With no weapons of mass destruction found during the Iraq campaign, and 179 UK military personal losing their lives, the conflict and consequent enquiry conducted in 2016 concluded a deficient case for war where preparations were inadequate and military objectives failed. Tony Blair, the Prime Minister during the conflict, was scrutinised publicly which emphasised the personal accountability of decision makers. Poor intelligence prior to any conflict in the southern hemisphere would potentially lead to the same outcomes.

Voters responded when Labours government lost the election in 2010, with a decline in electorate trust a contributing factor. Conversely, Thatcher gained popularity in her Britain-alone response seen in the Falklands, cementing the nickname ‘Iron Lady’ while seeing her landslide re-election in 1983 and 1987 following a conflict 8000 miles away from the UK but a beacon for political support. Both the Iraq and the Falkland conflicts were positioned as the defence of British security, but both had very different outcomes for politicians which influences their predecessors. The Royal Navy would encounter greater challenges if political support was limited, as indecision or mixed directions from political houses is more likely to result in command preparing problematic strategies. This is evidenced when troops were sent to Iraq without sufficient body armour because there was ‘not enough time’ to get the necessary equipment.

The importance of public opinion on military and political action

Politicians are influenced by the British people who elect them, while British people are subjects of the society in which they grew up and currently reside. On September 11^th 2001, Islamic extremist group al-Qaeda carried out a series of attacks on the United States killing almost 3000 civilians and resulting in the invasion of Afghanistan which harboured the terrorist organisation. Having seen the IRA plant bombs targeting civilians during the Troubles 1968-1998, many in British society were accustomed to attacks of this nature. However, in 2001 a new generation watched in horror as the Twin Towers collapsed live on televisions or online with the recent introduction of home broadband bringing influential, and sometimes biased, new media streams. The management of modern media is a challenge for the Royal Navy in any future conflict as the realities and narratives of war are inevitably going to draw criticism at a strategic level, thereby impacting service morale and psychological resilience.

The Afghanistan conflict was initially publicly supported however, as seen in the US-Vietnam War 1955-1975, the tactics faced by superiorly armed western troops struggled to combat guerilla tactics used by the enemy. Smart phones provide quicker access to information than ever seen before – whether factually true or ‘fake news’. Unaccountable and relatively unregulated social network publicity poses security threats as sensitive information, if exposed, can be shared instantly with millions of people. Falkland’s War battle group commander Admiral Sir John Woodward was critical of the British press, citing the publication of fleet movements which provided Argentina with easily sourced strategic intentions that potentially cost British lives during the amphibious assault on Goose Green. Maintaining information security is a challenge as opportunist or ‘people of motive’ could potentially make publications that strategically undermine the Navy’s operational success, whether by mistake or with ill intent.

In 2005 Islamic terrorism continued when bombs in the London Tube system were detonated killing 52 people. 8 years later the British soldier Lee Rigby was beheaded by an Islamic extremist, once again in the capital and recorded on mobile phones. These renewed attacks discouraged support for the Afghan conflict as many felt the war was not stopping terrorism, and British troops who now surpassed 450 casualties should come home with a handover to the Afghan government. In 2021 politicians, pressured from exhausted public support, withdrew all remaining British troops from Afghanistan and Islamic extremists regained control of the country. The Navy would be under pressure to resolve any conflict in the southern hemisphere before public support ebbs away. A war far away in the southern hemisphere could reduce this ‘window for victory’ further if those at home felt disconnected to the purposes of conflict. Such pressures of time could challenge strategic planning negatively, as seen in the failed Gallipoli campaign in 1915-1916 when a hastily planned campaign turned into a bloody stalemate followed by the withdrawal of British and ANZAC troops.

It’s all about Logistics…

Environments of theatres of war pose further logistical challenges for the Royal Navy. History has many examples where supply chain failures have led to strategic military failure even for apparently unstoppable forces, such as in 1812 when Napoleon’s army withdrew from Russia due to a lack of equipment and food necessary for the cold conditions. At sea, supply ships are often targeted as seen in the Battle of the Atlantic 1939-1945, or the sinking of both SS Atlantic Conveyor and RFA Sir Galahad in the Falkland’s War. Taking aside the stretched nature of supplying warships in the southern hemisphere, the safety measures necessary to orchestrate the logistics so many miles from friendly ports would be challenging for the Royal Navy command.

Without NATO support Britain would likely still find logistical assistance, although limited, such as that given by the USA during the Falklands. However, this is not guaranteed as such historic allies may have their own political and social factors that prevent any association. Furthermore, should the conflict be with a country which enjoys close diplomatic ties to neighbouring nations, then the logistics could be problematic with access to small channels or shortest shipping routes prohibited. Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay are just three nations in South America who agreed to close their ports to ships flying the Falkland Island flag as recently as 2011.

… but Cash is King!

Logistics cost money, which raises the fourth and final economic factor that creates challenges for the Royal Navy. The UK government spent just over 2% of GDP on defence in 2023, which puts it in the top ten of Global rankings but notably behind Russia and China who collectively spent nearly ten times that amount. The Royal Navy has a fleet of modern warships together with a Trident Submarine Nuclear deterrent, and it is capable of global operations proven by the worldwide deployment of ships seen today. With small craft and drones becoming common in the Ukraine war and Red Sea, combined with increasingly sophisticated electronic warfare evidently used by counties or hackers such as the personnel data breech in May 2024, investing in warships and MoD infrastructure to keep ahead of new threats is a financial challenge.

In the scenario of a severe threat to the UKs Foreign Policy such funds would be inevitably obtained, however a conflict would certainly receive heavy scrutiny and with other public services such as the NHS and Education closer to many people’s day to day lives, economic justifications would need to be solid and swift or military strategy could suffer. Ships destined to be decommissioned prior to the Falklands conflict were refitted and redeployed when the war started, however if the Argentinians had invaded a few years later such a turnaround would be too late, and the British fleet would have been smaller. This example suggests the timing of any given conflict would determine the impact of economic policy versus the fighting capability of the Royal Navy.

Current capabilities: challenging, but not impossible

Quashing an increase in piracy harassing British merchant ships is relatively small scale with the current capabilities UK warships possess. A repeat of the Falkland’s conflict is also one that you would wager a success for the Royal Navy, particularly as popular opinion in the territory is to remain part of the UK’s sovereignty. A larger conflict in the South Pacific against a powerful nation such as China however is clearly something that would test the Navy to the limits, although given the global ramifications of such a scenario it is unrealistic to foresee all NATO countries refusing to assist in operations. Britain is currently supporting the Australian Royal Navy in building Nuclear Submarines in response to threats from China, thereby supporting the argument that without NATO Britain would likely still have allies. The challenges could be vast or small, difficult to combat or easily resolved, depending on the nature and scale of the given conflict in the context of where the United Kingdom and its allies reside at that point in time.

Conclusions

History shows the Royal Navy strives to uphold the core values of courage, commitment, discipline, respect, integrity and loyalty. This may seem to some like a corporate banner, however to those serving in the Royal Navy it is evident day to day and has been married to what is recognised internationally as outstanding training. The ability of great strategic commanders like Admiral Nelson, famed for his tactics and his leadership during the Battle of Trafalgar 1805, determines how unforeseen challenges in the heat of battle are successfully overcome. Although past success in conflicts do not safeguard the Royal Navy from challenges it could face in the southern hemisphere, it has provided the admiralty with intangible intellectual capital that is world leading and advantageous.

The four factors outlined in this essay would determine the specific challenges that the Royal Navy would face, which in turn are dependent on the nature of conflict it faces. However with commitments by the government for the UK to continue to be a key player in global affairs, an economy that is ranked in the top 10 worldwide and an island nation that has for generations identified with the ‘senior service’ – it is fair to conclude that challenges would have to be greater than Britain has ever faced in order to significantly undermine the Royal Navy’s capability to successfully meet the scale of conflicts that could realistically occur in the southern hemisphere.