On June 1st 2025, Ukraine carried out well-coordinated drone attacks on four airbases deep inside Russia. In the operation codenamed ‘Spider’s Web’, 117 drones were utilized to allegedly hit over 40 Russian strategic bombers inflicting a damage of around seven billion dollars. As part of the operation, drones were first smuggled into Russia, hidden inside wooden sheds and subsequently loaded onto the trucks. When the trucks were in close proximity to the air bases, the roof panels were remotely lifted, allowing the drones to initiate the assault. Ukraine claims that the targeted bomber fleet was being used by Russia to strike infrastructure inside the Ukrainian territory.
The increased utilization of drones in contemporary times is indicative of the future face of warfare. While the Ukraine-Russia war has seen widespread drone use, similar patterns have emerged in other conflict zones including the Azerbaijan-Armenia war and the India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025. It is pertinent to note that the India-Pakistan conflict did not witness the same level and intensity of drone usage, possibly due to its short four-day duration, contrary to the Ukraine-Russia and Azerbaijan-Armenia wars. However, these instances collectively signal the pattern of future warfare, which would be dominated by the increasing use of drones, particularly drone swarms.
During the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, drones played a prominent role in countering Armenian ground forces on the battlefield, highlighting the vulnerability of conventional military equipment to drones. Utilization of drones by Azerbaijan played a significant role in determining the outcome of the war. The war concluded with Armenia accepting a ceasefire agreement under severe terms.
Similarly, the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, saw the use of drone from both sides. During the four-day conflict, India used a variety of drones in an attempt to saturate air defence environment and take out the air defence and radar installations deep inside Pakistan. However, after detecting the threat, Pakistan likely switched to radar silence to prevent emission of signals and intercepted the incoming drones using soft and hard kill mechanisms. In response to India’s use of drones, Pakistan also launched drones that hovered over the Indian military installations and major cities making it the first instance of drone warfare between the two nuclear armed states.
All of these instances suggest that drones are dominating the present conflict environment and future conflicts might see a surge in the employment of drones. Previously, countries were investing in large drones, however, more recently these platforms are optimized for targeted strikes and are less suited for the dynamic and saturated threat environments of modern conflicts. Recognizing this limitation, countries are now shifting their focus towards developing scalable and cost-effective drone swarms capable of overwhelming enemy air defences.
In this context, the US, in August 2023, announced Replicator initiative with the goal to harness advancements in autonomous technology to mass-produce expendable systems capable of providing a strategic edge in contested operational environments through Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and Destruction of Enemy Air Defences (DEAD) missions. The program focuses on developing drones, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs). Similarly, China’s military drone capabilities have seen significant growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping has portrayed, drones as capable of “profoundly changing war scenarios” and pledged during the Communist Party’s Congress in 2022, to “speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities”. In this context, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operates an arsenal of diverse drone types, with estimates suggesting a fleet size in tens of thousands, vastly outnumbering the drone fleets of the US.
Besides this, countries are also racing towards developing anti-drone technology. However, the technology used to neutralize drone swarms is yet underdeveloped. Traditional air defences have been somewhat effective in countering individual drones; however, interception of drone swarms present new challenges. Even if few of the drones are successfully neutralized, some might still manage to penetrate defences and engage the intended target. In this context, China’s largest arms manufacturer Norinco has recently unveiled an anti-drone swarm system called Bullet Curtain. The system is reported to be capable of firing a wall of bullets to clear the sky of drone swarms. It uses 35mm rounds that explode mid-air, releasing hundreds of sub-projectiles to form a lethal cloud that obliterates anything in the target area.
These developments indicate an emerging arms race, one that may revolve not around large platforms but around small, smart, and scalable systems like drones. The drone warfare is redefining the traditional notion of air superiority. Thereby, allowing smaller states to inflict damage on established military powers as happened in the case of recent Ukrainian drone attack against Russian bombers. What is now evident is that drones are no longer auxiliary tools, instead they have become central to the conduct of modern warfare.
Ahmad Ali
Ahmad Ali is a Research Associate at the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. He holds a BS degree in Strategic Studies from National Defence University, Islamabad. Ahmad is a published author and hold certifications from Stimson Center and Chatham House. His areas of interest include emerging military technologies, nuclear affairs, and cybersecurity. He can be reached via LinkedIn:
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