Exaggeration and ignorance ‘the scramble for the Arctic’

This article is about the so-called ‘scramble for the Arctic’.  This would be a story of high farce rather than the high North but for threats made by the current US administration to forcibly annex Greenland – the territory of a NATO ally – on the spurious grounds that the island is ‘covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place’, and America must ‘own’ Greenland as a matter of security to prevent imagined Russian or Chinese ownership. Republican Senator Randy Fine has introduced a Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act that would authorise the White House to annex Greenland ‘by any means necessary’. Control of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) is cited as a key reason why America must annex Greenland, ignoring the wishes of Greenlanders and setting aside what would be a gross assault on Denmark and more widely Europe and NATO.

People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in Greenland

No Chinese warship has ever visited Greenland.  There is no evidence a PLAN nuclear submarine has ever deployed to Greenland waters either.  How would it get there and why would it anyway.  At the time of writing of this article there are no commercial Chinese ships near Greenland either.  The simple matter of logging on MarineTraffic and checking the AIS identities of vessels in these waters would tell you this.

Chinese mines in Greenland

There are no Chinese mines in Greenland.  There never have been.  It is unlikely there ever would be except in partnership with other Western companies.  There was a period (2011-2018) when China expressed interest in mining and infrastructure projects but it came to nothing. Shenghe Resources currently has a 10.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld rare earths project.  However, this project, led by the Australian Energy Transition Minerals, was halted in 2021 over uranium contamination fears and is subject to an $11.4 billion damages suit. It is unlikely it will proceed.

The Russian Navy (Northern Fleet) in Greenland

No Russian warship has ever visited Greenland.  Or will.  A Russian warship would not be welcomed in a NATO territory.

Russian Naval Aviation is moribund and reliant on the small number of Soviet-era aircraft that remain airworthy. The Northern Fleet surface fleet rests on three modern frigates, only one of which ever sails at a time.  The nuclear submarine fleet is finally leaving behind the troubled 90s and noughties with the commissioning of the Yasen-M and Borei-A class boats. It needs to – the old Soviet nuclear boats had become a menace to everyone (and indeed Western countries provided extensive financial and technical assistance in their decommissioning).  The Fleet’s best conventional capabilities are the Kinzhal and Tsirkon hypersonic missiles – which Putin is inordinately proud of – but Ukrainian air defenders have proved Russian hypersonic missiles can, in fact, be downed.

Northern Fleet naval towns and bases on the Kola Peninsula are a picture of dilapidation and decline (which US intelligence perfectly knows).  Just this New Year, districts of Severomorsk – almost all naval families or contractors – woke up without heat of electricity, in minus 30 degrees.  If you could engage in a conversation with a sailor of the Northern Fleet, they would be much less inclined to talk about competition in the Arctic and more likely to vent views on the post-Soviet squalor and humiliation of their daily lives.

Soviet Military Power 1988 (DoD)

When a threat truly existed in the Arctic.  NATO monitored between 130-140 Northern Fleet Russian submarines. Today, as many as two Russian nuclear submarines may be on patrol.

There are no Russian commercial ships in Greenland waters either at this moment.  Check MarineTraffic. The absolute and urgent priority for Russian commercial shipping currently is the ‘shadow fleet’ and associated oil and gas exports, not Greenland.

 Russian mines in Greenland

There are no Russian mines in Greenland.  There never have been.  There won’t be.  Russian mining is in crisis: high interest rates, under-investment, sanctions, Chinese competition, and low commodity prices have variously crippled the Russian mining sector.  A consequence is that Russian Railways – the prime carrier – is now on the verge of collapse: over 4 trillion roubles in debt, or the entire remaining liquid assets of Russia’s National Wealth Fund, and one third of Russia’s exploded defence budget. Russian Railways’ bankruptcy has intersected with three other key and also loss-making industries; coal, metallurgy, and construction.  It’s a disaster.

How many mines does Greenland actually have?

Two. The White Mountain Anorthosite Mine is the only year-round mine in Greenland. It is yet to turn a profit. There is also the smaller Nalunaq Gold mine, which has proved profitable. Active exploration continues at this site. For context, there are over 12,000 operating mines globally. Anorthosite is used in fibre glass production among other uses, none of which have strategic value to the US.

Elsewhere, the Tanbreez Rare Earth Project in southern Greenland should open a pilot plant in the near future. Following US lobbying, this project was recently sold to the New York-based Critical Metals.  However, despite the size of the site, there is scepticism the project will achieve commercial production.  If it does, China will likely join the value chain anyway. Obsession with ‘owning’ Greenland and imagined mining riches misses the point: China dominates 92% of REE refining capacity globally.

The Greenland ‘El Dorado’

A mine is a hole owned by a liar, Mark Twain quipped.   In total, around 250 companies have been present in Greenland and over 700 exploration licenses have been granted.  This sounds like a lot. It isn’t. The numbers are misleading. Since 1798 – a period of 228 years – just nine mines have operated.  The overwhelming majority of explorations and licences are abandoned and lead to nothing.  Conditions are extreme. On average, it takes about 16 years to open a mine. All this information and much more is freely available to anyone with an interest in mining opportunities in Greenland at the Greenland Mineral Resources Portal (www.greenmin.gl).  Chinese and Russians do not need to crawl ‘all over the place’; they can just log on, like anyone else.

The ‘opening up’ of the Arctic sea routes

The Arctic sea routes are not ‘opening up’.  This is a myth repeated every year by lobby groups and vested interests blithely ignoring the inconvenient facts.  Last year, just 43 vessels completed the full transit of the Northern Sea Route in the narrow summer window.  This is the key metric: how many vessels actually manage the full transit.  Around 165,000 vessels transit the English Channel annually.

Why does the current US administration take a predatory view towards Greenland?

Reasons for threatened predation lie elsewhere:  the Greenland government sets high regulatory standards, environmental concerns are central, and climate change worries.  All three are held in contempt by the current US administration and supporting lobby groups including some extremely wealthy individuals.  The latter is described as a ‘con job’ and attitudes to regulation and the environment are best summarised by the macho phrase ‘drill baby drill’.  President Trump implied as much in a weekend interview with The New York Times. When logically asked why he did not simply deploy more troops to Greenland – which the US can do under current treaty arrangements – he replied: ‘I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do, whether you’re talking about a lease or a treaty.’  If America forcibly seized the island, Greenlander concerns would be swept aside. The drill, baby, would rule. But not discover El Dorado.

Cover photo Nuuk, capital of Greenland Source: Sky News

This article first appeared on Small Wars Journal. We are grateful for their permission to reproduce it.